Chorley vs Brackley Town
National League North, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
DLWLW
WLLDWThe score model made a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chorley 1.16 – 1.12 Brackley Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 36.8% | 44.4% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.9% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Brackley Town win | 34.8% | 27.7% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 50.0% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 29.7% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 54.6% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 34.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chorley 58.6 / Brackley Town 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.