Oxford City vs Buxton

National League North, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET

WWLWD

2 : 3

full-time · HT 0:2

xG 1.33 – 1.48

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The score model made a Buxton win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.

Scoreline probabilities

1:111.3%

0:18.3%

1:28.2%

1:07.3%

2:17.2%

0:26.1%

Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.

First goal · head-to-head

0–1515–3030–4545–6060–7575–90

Oxford City (30)Buxton (30)

2026-08-28 · Oxford City – Buxton2:3

2026-01-10 · Oxford City – Buxton2:1

2025-09-06 · Buxton – Oxford City2:1

Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)

One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oxford City 1.33 – 1.48 Buxton.

Market	Data %	Implied	Divergence	Result
Oxford City win	34.3%	—	—	✗
Draw	24.9%	—	—	✗
Buxton win	40.9%	—	—	✓
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	—	—	✓
Over 2.5 goals	53.4%	—	—	✓
Over 3.5 goals	31.1%	—	—	✓
Both teams to score	56.7%	—	—	✓
HT over 0.5 goals	70.8%	—	—	✓
HT over 1.5 goals	34.5%	—	—	✓

Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oxford City 47.4 / Buxton 60.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.

Averaged bookmaker prices: home —, draw —, away —.

How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.