Spennymoor vs Oxford City
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DLLDD
WWLWDThe score model made a Spennymoor win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spennymoor 1.54 – 1.15 Oxford City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spennymoor win | 46.4% | 39.4% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Oxford City win | 28.7% | 33.2% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 51.3% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 30.8% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 56.0% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 35.4% | -5.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spennymoor 58.6 / Oxford City 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.