Southport vs Bedford
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LLWLD
WWWLDThe score model made a Southport win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southport 1.50 – 1.33 Bedford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southport win | 41.6% | 48.9% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Bedford win | 33.7% | 25.1% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 53.0% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 33.0% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 55.3% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 36.8% | -0.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southport 57.6 / Bedford 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.