Macclesfield vs Brackley Town
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WLDDW
WLLDWThe score model made a Macclesfield win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macclesfield 1.37 – 1.30 Brackley Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macclesfield win | 38.8% | 50.9% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Brackley Town win | 35.5% | 23.1% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 50.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 30.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 52.9% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 35.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Macclesfield 34.4 / Brackley Town 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.