Macclesfield vs Brackley Town
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WLWWD
WWWDLThe score model makes a Macclesfield win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Brackley Town win — 35.5% vs 26.1% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macclesfield 1.37 – 1.30 Brackley Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macclesfield win | 38.8% | 47.3% | -8.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.6% | -1.0% |
| Brackley Town win | 35.5% | 26.1% | +9.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 50.3% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 30.5% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 53.3% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 35.0% | -3.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Macclesfield 34.6 / Brackley Town 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.