King’s Lynn vs Marine
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WWLWW
LLLWWThe score model made a King’s Lynn win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: King’s Lynn 1.33 – 0.96 Marine.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King’s Lynn win | 45.5% | 51.5% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Marine win | 27.0% | 22.3% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 49.7% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 29.4% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 52.0% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 34.5% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: King’s Lynn 57.6 / Marine 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.