Chorley vs Scarborough
National League North, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DLWLW
LLDDDThe score model made a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chorley 1.43 – 1.10 Scarborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 44.6% | 35.8% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.0% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Scarborough win | 29.3% | 36.1% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 48.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 28.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 53.4% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 33.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chorley 57.7 / Scarborough 58.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.