York City vs Walsall
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DWLLW
DDWLWThe score model makes a York City win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Walsall win — 31.6% vs 25.3% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: York City 1.67 – 1.38 Walsall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| York City win | 44.4% | 51.6% | -7.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.1% | +0.9% |
| Walsall win | 31.6% | 25.3% | +6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 61.1% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 40.2% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 60.7% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 41.9% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: York City 13.7 / Walsall 57.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open York City vs Walsall in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.