Tranmere vs Colchester
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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DDLLWThe score model makes a Tranmere win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.3% vs 70.0% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tranmere 1.30 – 1.21 Colchester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 38.6% | 43.5% | -4.9% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.0% |
| Colchester win | 34.3% | 29.4% | +4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 51.1% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 30.0% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 55.3% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 34.0% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tranmere 59.8 / Colchester 58.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tranmere vs Colchester in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.