Oldham vs Exeter
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LDLWL
DWWLWThe score model makes an Oldham win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 29%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 70.5% vs 50.0% implied (+20.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oldham 1.03 – 0.86 Exeter.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham win | 38.5% | 47.3% | -8.9% |
| Draw | 32.0% | 25.1% | +6.9% |
| Exeter win | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.5% | 50.0% | -20.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.4% | 28.8% | -16.3% |
| Both teams to score | 37.3% | 52.8% | -15.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 34.5% | -14.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Oldham 38.9 / Exeter 13.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oldham vs Exeter in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.