Newport vs Swindon
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 13:30 CET
DDLWD
DWDWLThe score model makes a Newport win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Newport win — 52.1% vs 47.5% implied (+4.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Newport 1.76 – 1.13 Swindon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport win | 52.1% | 47.5% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 26.5% | -2.8% |
| Swindon win | 24.2% | 26.0% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 52.9% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 32.2% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 56.2% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 36.4% | -0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Newport 59.7 / Swindon 59.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Newport vs Swindon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.