Grimsby vs Rotherham
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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LLDDLThe score model makes a Grimsby win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Grimsby win — 67.2% vs 60.6% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grimsby 2.29 – 0.96 Rotherham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 67.2% | 60.6% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 18.6% | 21.3% | -2.7% |
| Rotherham win | 14.2% | 18.1% | -3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 60.1% | +2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.7% | 38.8% | +1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 57.0% | -1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | 41.1% | +3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Grimsby 59.9 / Rotherham 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grimsby vs Rotherham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.