Crawley vs Fleetwood
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DLLDW
WLLWWThe score model makes a Fleetwood win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.3% vs 64.1% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crawley 1.22 – 1.53 Fleetwood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley win | 30.3% | 27.4% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.3% | +0.1% |
| Fleetwood win | 44.2% | 47.3% | -3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 57.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 35.9% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 59.7% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 38.7% | -5.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Crawley 44.3 / Fleetwood 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Crawley vs Fleetwood in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.