Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LDWLW
WWDLWThe score model makes a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chesterfield win — 63.5% vs 58.2% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chesterfield 2.00 – 0.88 Shrewsbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 63.5% | 58.2% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 20.9% | 23.4% | -2.5% |
| Shrewsbury win | 15.5% | 18.4% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 55.1% | -0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 34.5% | -1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 53.9% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 37.6% | +1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chesterfield 51.4 / Shrewsbury 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.