Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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LLDLLThe score model makes a Cheltenham win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cheltenham win — 37.1% vs 27.3% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.31 – 1.29 Bristol Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 37.1% | 27.3% | +9.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.0% | +0.7% |
| Bristol Rovers win | 36.2% | 46.7% | -10.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 54.6% | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 34.1% | -7.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 57.6% | -4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 37.6% | -5.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cheltenham 51.4 / Bristol Rovers 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.