Barnet vs Port Vale
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WLDWD
WDLWWThe score model makes a Barnet win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.0% vs 66.8% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnet 1.61 – 1.15 Port Vale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 48.0% | 46.2% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.1% | -1.2% |
| Port Vale win | 27.1% | 27.7% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 54.0% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 33.2% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 56.9% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.8% | -0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Barnet 36.8 / Port Vale 24.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Barnet vs Port Vale in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.