Accrington vs Salford
League Two, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WDWDL
WWWWDThe score model makes an Accrington win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Accrington win — 43.1% vs 25.8% implied (+17.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Accrington 1.51 – 1.25 Salford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 43.1% | 25.8% | +17.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.3% | -0.9% |
| Salford win | 31.4% | 47.9% | -16.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 54.5% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 34.1% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 57.3% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 37.3% | -1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Accrington 57.8 / Salford 59.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Accrington vs Salford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.