Swindon vs Crewe
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
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DDDWWThe score model made a Swindon win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swindon 1.46 – 1.21 Crewe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 42.8% | 35.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Crewe win | 31.3% | 36.8% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 54.2% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 33.7% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 59.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 37.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swindon 58 / Crewe 58.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.