Port Vale vs Grimsby
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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WWLLLThe score model made a Port Vale win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Port Vale 1.24 – 1.11 Grimsby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 39.2% | 33.8% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Grimsby win | 32.6% | 37.5% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 48.1% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 28.0% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 54.2% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 33.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Port Vale 20 / Grimsby 59 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.