Newport vs Colchester
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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LDDDLThe score model made a Colchester win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Newport 1.16 – 1.35 Colchester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport win | 31.9% | 35.7% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Colchester win | 41.0% | 37.1% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 51.9% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 31.2% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 56.9% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 35.9% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Newport 58.1 / Colchester 57.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.