Crawley vs Chesterfield
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLLDW
DLDWLThe score model made a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crawley 1.07 – 1.54 Chesterfield.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley win | 26.1% | 19.9% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 22.3% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Chesterfield win | 48.3% | 57.8% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 62.7% | -14.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 42.2% | -15.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 60.7% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 42.6% | -11.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crawley 42.6 / Chesterfield 50.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Crawley vs Chesterfield in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.