Crawley vs Chesterfield
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LDLLL
DWWLWThe score model makes a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.4% vs 61.1% implied (+12.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crawley 1.06 – 1.55 Chesterfield.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley win | 26.0% | 21.3% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 23.0% | +2.6% |
| Chesterfield win | 48.4% | 55.8% | -7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 59.2% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% | 38.9% | -12.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 58.5% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 40.9% | -9.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crawley 43 / Chesterfield 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.