Cheltenham vs Salford
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WDWLL
DWWWWThe score model made a Salford win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.38 – 1.53 Salford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 34.2% | 23.1% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Salford win | 40.9% | 52.3% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 55.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 34.8% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 57.0% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 38.4% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheltenham 48.9 / Salford 59.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.