Bristol Rovers vs Barnet
League Two, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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DDWWWThe score model made a Barnet win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.43 – 1.66 Barnet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers win | 33.0% | 40.7% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Barnet win | 43.0% | 32.7% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 55.9% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 34.9% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 59.4% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 37.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bristol Rovers 35.3 / Barnet 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.