Oxford Utd vs Wycombe
League One, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WDWDW
LWDDWThe score model makes an Oxford Utd win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Oxford Utd win — 53.5% vs 39.1% implied (+14.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oxford Utd 1.79 – 1.10 Wycombe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd win | 53.5% | 39.1% | +14.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 26.9% | -3.2% |
| Wycombe win | 22.8% | 33.9% | -11.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 56.0% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 35.3% | -2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 59.6% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 38.2% | -1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Oxford Utd 20.3 / Wycombe 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oxford Utd vs Wycombe in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.