Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
League One, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DWLLW
LLDLWThe score model makes a Leyton Orient win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Leyton Orient win — 58.1% vs 51.7% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.86 – 0.96 AFC Wimbledon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 58.1% | 51.7% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 23.9% | -0.9% |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 18.9% | 24.4% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 55.7% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 34.2% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 56.4% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 38.4% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Leyton Orient 55.8 / AFC Wimbledon 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.