Cambridge Utd vs Stockport County
League One, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WDLDL
WDLWWThe score model makes a Stockport County win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.7% vs 59.7% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cambridge Utd 1.17 – 1.64 Stockport County.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge Utd win | 26.8% | 26.9% | -0.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.1% | +0.9% |
| Stockport County win | 48.2% | 49.0% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 58.5% | -5.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 37.2% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 59.3% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 40.3% | -7.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cambridge Utd 33.8 / Stockport County 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cambridge Utd vs Stockport County in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.