Burton vs Luton
League One, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DDWLL
WWWWDThe score model makes a Luton win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Burton win — 26.0% vs 20.6% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burton 1.16 – 1.69 Luton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 26.0% | 20.6% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 23.7% | +0.8% |
| Luton win | 49.5% | 55.7% | -6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 57.7% | -3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 36.9% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 57.0% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 39.4% | -4.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Burton 59.9 / Luton 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Burton vs Luton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.