Bradford City vs Doncaster
League One, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DWDDL
LLWLLThe score model makes a Bradford City win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.5% vs 66.7% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.65 – 0.86 Doncaster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City win | 55.9% | 56.8% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 23.4% | +1.5% |
| Doncaster win | 19.1% | 19.9% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 54.2% | -8.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 33.3% | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | 53.6% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 36.9% | -3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bradford City 36.9 / Doncaster 36.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bradford City vs Doncaster in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.