Barnsley vs Sheffield Wed
League One, England · 2026-11-20 · 21:00 CET
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LLDDWThe score model makes a Sheffield Wed win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.3% vs 54.5% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.40 – 1.62 Sheffield Wed.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 33.1% | 34.6% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.6% | -0.1% |
| Sheffield Wed win | 42.4% | 40.8% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 65.1% | -7.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 45.5% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 67.1% | -6.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 45.5% | -5.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Barnsley 58.6 / Sheffield Wed 14.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Barnsley vs Sheffield Wed in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.