Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
League One, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
WLLWD
LLLDLThe score model made a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plymouth 2.07 – 0.90 AFC Wimbledon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 64.3% | 63.7% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 21.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 15.5% | 15.2% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 57.4% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 36.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 52.7% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 39.3% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plymouth 37.9 / AFC Wimbledon 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.