Cambridge Utd vs Blackpool
League One, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DWDDW
LLDLLThe score model made a Blackpool win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cambridge Utd 1.23 – 1.35 Blackpool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge Utd win | 33.9% | 46.6% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Blackpool win | 39.6% | 27.8% | +11.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 57.0% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 36.2% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 59.3% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 38.4% | -10.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cambridge Utd 30.4 / Blackpool 53.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.