West Ham vs Preston
Championship, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WLLDL
LDLLWThe score model makes a West Ham win the most likely outcome at 73%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 56.1% vs 50.7% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Ham 2.61 – 0.93 Preston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 73.2% | 78.0% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 16.0% | 13.9% | +2.1% |
| Preston win | 10.8% | 8.2% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 69.4% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.0% | 49.7% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.7% | +5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.0% | 48.8% | +1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: West Ham 13.7 / Preston 59.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open West Ham vs Preston in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.