West Brom vs Birmingham
Championship, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
WDLLW
LWDWWThe score model made a West Brom win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Brom 1.26 – 0.97 Birmingham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 42.3% | 37.8% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 29.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Birmingham win | 27.7% | 33.0% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 46.6% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 26.9% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 52.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 31.8% | +2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: West Brom 57.1 / Birmingham 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.