Watford vs Burnley
Championship, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WLLWD
LLDDLThe score model made a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Watford 0.93 – 1.34 Burnley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 25.4% | 35.3% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Burnley win | 45.3% | 37.3% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 53.7% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 32.8% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 58.2% | -12.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 36.0% | -1.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Watford 57.1 / Burnley 23.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Watford vs Burnley in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.