Preston vs Millwall
Championship, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LWLLD
LWLDDThe score model makes a Millwall win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 75.1% vs 64.9% implied (+10.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Preston 1.12 – 1.28 Millwall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 31.6% | 34.5% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.8% | +1.1% |
| Millwall win | 39.4% | 37.7% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 51.2% | -8.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 31.0% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 56.2% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 35.1% | -10.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Preston 57.6 / Millwall 59.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.