Charlton vs Bristol City
Championship, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
DDLDD
LLWDLThe score model made a Bristol City win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Charlton 1.02 – 1.08 Bristol City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 32.8% | 29.9% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 29.0% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Bristol City win | 35.7% | 41.2% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.1% | 45.7% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.2% | 25.8% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 52.0% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 31.6% | -8.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Charlton 35 / Bristol City 57.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.