El Gouna vs Arab Contractors
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-02 · 16:00 CET
DDLLL
LLWDWThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 24%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: El Gouna 0.92 – 0.76 Arab Contractors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Gouna win | 35.5% | 35.0% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 38.1% | 35.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Arab Contractors win | 26.3% | 29.8% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23.7% | 29.0% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.0% | 13.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.0% | 38.2% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 50.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 17.5% | 20.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: El Gouna 35.7 / Arab Contractors 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.