Ceramica Cleopatra vs Modern Sport
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-02 · 19:00 CET
LWWWW
DWLWWThe score model made a Ceramica Cleopatra win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceramica Cleopatra 1.34 – 0.79 Modern Sport.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceramica Cleopatra win | 47.9% | 42.8% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.1% | 31.9% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Modern Sport win | 20.0% | 25.2% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 35.7% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 18.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.1% | 42.6% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.4% | 25.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceramica Cleopatra 33.1 / Modern Sport 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.