Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
LDDLD
LLLDWThe score model makes an Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aarhus win — 61.7% vs 58.2% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus 2.17 – 1.07 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus win | 61.7% | 58.2% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 22.2% | -0.8% |
| Sonderjyske win | 16.9% | 19.6% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 62.7% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 42.0% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 60.3% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 42.9% | +1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarhus 37.4 / Sonderjyske 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.