Randers FC vs Viborg
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-10-11 · 14:00 CET
WLLLD
WLDWWThe score model made a Viborg win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Randers FC 1.23 – 1.46 Viborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC win | 30.8% | 29.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Viborg win | 41.1% | 43.8% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 57.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 36.5% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 60.3% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.5% | 39.1% | +6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Randers FC 36.1 / Viborg 36 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.