Brondby vs Lyngby
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-10-11 · 16:00 CET
WLLLL
LDWDLThe score model makes a Brondby win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 77.1% vs 59.1% implied (+18.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brondby 1.60 – 0.83 Lyngby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brondby win | 54.6% | 53.5% | +1.1% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 23.7% | +3.3% |
| Lyngby win | 18.4% | 22.8% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 59.4% | -15.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 38.1% | -15.5% |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 59.4% | -13.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 40.9% | -18.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brondby 36.5 / Lyngby 17.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.