FC Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
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LLLDWThe score model made an FC Copenhagen win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Copenhagen 2.45 – 1.12 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen win | 65.9% | 70.9% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.0% | 17.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Sonderjyske win | 15.1% | 11.3% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | 65.6% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.9% | 45.0% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 55.2% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.2% | 44.7% | +5.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Copenhagen 34.3 / Sonderjyske 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.