Silkeborg vs Midtjylland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-30 · 14:00 CET
DDDDW
DWDWDThe score model made a Midtjylland win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Silkeborg 1.10 – 2.27 Midtjylland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silkeborg win | 16.7% | 14.7% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 19.4% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Midtjylland win | 63.1% | 65.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 64.2% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 57.9% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.4% | 43.9% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Silkeborg 35.3 / Midtjylland 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.