Randers FC vs Aarhus
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
LWWLL
LDDLDThe score model made an Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Randers FC 0.89 – 1.61 Aarhus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC win | 20.1% | 30.7% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.4% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Aarhus win | 53.4% | 42.9% | +10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 56.3% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 35.2% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 59.6% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 38.3% | +1.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Randers FC 35.3 / Aarhus 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.