Nordsjaelland vs Brondby
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
WLDWL
WLLLLThe score model made a Nordsjaelland win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nordsjaelland 1.32 – 1.23 Brondby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordsjaelland win | 38.1% | 45.3% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 24.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Brondby win | 33.6% | 29.9% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 61.3% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 40.3% | -15.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 62.8% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 42.0% | -13.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nordsjaelland 34.3 / Brondby 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.