Lyngby vs Odense
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-30 · 14:00 CET
LDWDL
DDLWDThe score model made a Lyngby win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lyngby 1.31 – 1.23 Odense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyngby win | 37.6% | 45.0% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 25.3% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Odense win | 34.0% | 29.7% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 60.3% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 39.2% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 62.6% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 41.2% | -10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lyngby 15.3 / Odense 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.