Brondby vs Silkeborg
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-24 · 19:00 CET
WDWWW
LDLWLThe score model makes a Brondby win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.9% vs 57.7% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brondby 2.03 – 0.92 Silkeborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brondby win | 62.5% | 66.1% | -3.6% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 19.6% | +2.5% |
| Silkeborg win | 15.5% | 14.4% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 63.3% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 42.3% | -8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 56.4% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 42.9% | +0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brondby 35.1 / Silkeborg 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.