Viborg vs FC Copenhagen
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
LWLDW
WWWWWThe score model makes an FC Copenhagen win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 47.7% vs 42.0% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viborg 1.43 – 1.85 FC Copenhagen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg win | 29.0% | 32.7% | -3.6% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.8% | -0.8% |
| FC Copenhagen win | 47.0% | 42.5% | +4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 61.4% | +2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% | 40.9% | +0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 63.7% | +1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.7% | 42.0% | +5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viborg 35.1 / FC Copenhagen 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.