Viborg vs FC Copenhagen
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
WWLDW
WWWWWThe score model made an FC Copenhagen win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 4:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viborg 1.43 – 1.85 FC Copenhagen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg win | 29.1% | 32.3% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| FC Copenhagen win | 46.9% | 41.1% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 56.8% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.6% | 35.9% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 60.6% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 38.7% | +9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viborg 34.8 / FC Copenhagen 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.