Sonderjyske vs Nordsjaelland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 12:00 CET
LLLDW
WLDWLThe score model made a Nordsjaelland win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sonderjyske 1.24 – 1.62 Nordsjaelland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske win | 28.3% | 23.0% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 22.7% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Nordsjaelland win | 45.5% | 54.3% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 65.5% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 44.5% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 64.3% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 44.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sonderjyske 30.5 / Nordsjaelland 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.