Midtjylland vs Randers FC
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made a Midtjylland win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Midtjylland 2.20 – 0.85 Randers FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland win | 67.6% | 65.4% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.0% | 20.2% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Randers FC win | 12.4% | 14.4% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 60.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% | 39.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 54.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.4% | 41.5% | +7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Midtjylland 33.9 / Randers FC 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.